BID warns of AI-related wage risks in Latin America

The Inter-American Development Bank (BID) unveiled, on September 21, 2026, preliminary projections on the economic effects of artificial intelligence in Latin America and the Caribbean. It envisions regional GDP being 5.1% higher after ten years with widespread adoption and strong productivity gains. Its simulations nevertheless project a decline in wages when workers cannot move into growing areas of employment.

This release accompanies a meeting organized by the BID Group on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. The findings come from DIA 2026, a report in the Development in the Americas series devoted to the transition from digitalization to artificial intelligence.

GDP gains depend on the spread of AI

With limited AI adoption and weak productivity gains, BID projects only 0.3% additional GDP after ten years. The gap with the widespread adoption scenario therefore reaches 4.8 percentage points. These figures describe differences in output levels at the end of a decade, rather than annual growth rates.

Access to growing areas of employment changes the wage outlook

For Latin America and the Caribbean, BID projects wages rising by 2.3% to 5.3% after ten years when workers can move into growing areas of employment. Without this mobility, the projected declines reach 13.5% to 20.9% over the same period, Reuters reports.

The comparison locates the mechanism affecting wages in the employment opportunities available to workers. Activities in which employment is growing require more labor. Mobility allows workers to meet this demand. When that transition is blocked, they miss out on this additional demand. In BID's simulations, regional output can therefore increase while earnings decline.

BID announces that the full report will be published in November 2026. It is titled “From Digitalization to Artificial Intelligence: Turning Promises into Productivity”.